If you only looked at one set of numbers, you might conclude New Glarus is headed for a quiet future.

Wisconsin Department of Administration municipal projections have suggested the Village of New Glarus could remain relatively flat in population over the coming decades, even slipping modestly by 2050 after smaller gains in the years before. Meanwhile, nearby Belleville, shaped by a different county growth backdrop, is projected to see much stronger gains over the same span, a contrast that makes New Glarus’ flatter outlook all the more striking. The state’s methodology is important here: those municipal projections are trend-based and then adjusted to fit county-level projections, rather than built from a community’s housing pipeline or maximum development capacity.

Numerically, the contrast is sharp. Belleville is projected to grow from 2,491 residents in 2020 to 3,824 by 2050, a gain of 1,333 people, or about 53.5 percent. New Glarus, by comparison, is projected to move from 2,266 in 2020 to 2,224 in 2050, a decline of 42 people, or about 1.9 percent. Put another way, the state’s model suggests Belleville would add the equivalent of more than half of New Glarus’ current population over that span, while New Glarus would be essentially flat. 

Yet that is where the picture begins to blur. On paper, the state sees a New Glarus that barely changes while Belleville climbs. On the ground, however, New Glarus has a growing list of subdivisions and residential concepts that suggest local officials, landowners and developers see room for something more. Matterhorn Heights, Prairie Haus Phase II, Country Haven, the the land Bader Brothers own on Durst Road, Valle Tell Phase II and the land kiddie corner from Bailey’s Run on Highway 39 owned by GL Farm Land LLC together represent a housing pipeline that could add several hundred homes, and potentially far more depending on how those projects are ultimately approved, phased and absorbed.