New Glarus and the rest of southern Wisconsin are favored to experience a warmer-than-normal winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest seasonal outlook, released Oct. 15. But residents hoping that means a winter without significant snowfall should not put away their shovels.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center expects above-average temperatures across much of the Midwest during December, January and February. The principal reason is a strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with a strong-to-very-strong event expected to persist into early 2027.

For the Upper Mississippi River Valley, the weather service places the probability of a warmer-than-normal winter at roughly 40% to 60%. That is a regional estimate, not a precise probability for New Glarus. It means the odds favor temperatures in the warmest third of the historical distribution, not that temperatures will be above freezing 40% to 60% of the time.

The precipitation forecast is much less decisive. The national outlook favors wetter conditions across much of the South and East, while the Upper Mississippi River Valley outlook assigns equal chances to wetter-, drier- and near-normal precipitation. For New Glarus, that leaves plenty of room for snow, rain, ice and midwinter thaws.