The headlines surrounding El Niño have become difficult to miss. In recent days, forecasters around the world have raised the possibility that the rapidly strengthening Pacific Ocean pattern could become one of the strongest El Niño events ever measured, prompting stories about a “super El Niño,” record global heat and potentially dramatic weather impacts around the world.

For New Glarus, however, the National Weather Service message is considerably less sensational — and more useful. A powerful El Niño would substantially increase the odds of a warmer-than-normal winter in southern Wisconsin. It could also favor less snow, although the historical record shows that snowfall and precipitation are much more difficult to predict.

The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, issued Aug. 13, says El Niño is strengthening and now has a greater than 90% chance of becoming “very strong” during fall and winter 2026-27. Even more striking, forecasters put the chance at 69% that its strength during October through December will exceed previous El Niño events in the modern record dating to 1950.

That is a considerable change from earlier this summer and helps explain why the national headlines have escalated so quickly. But NOAA includes an important caution: even an El Niño of this magnitude does not guarantee its typical weather impacts in every location. Instead, a stronger event tilts the odds more heavily toward those outcomes.